Year 2010 Outlook@Japanese  Chinese

Atsushi Murakami@(SEAnews Editor & Publisher)

 

ŸLocus of world economic recovery

The financial crisis, which occurred after the U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers' collapse in September 2008, gave a serious blow to the economies of Europe and Japan. However the world economy seems to be gradually recovering back to more than expected elasticity with emerging economies such as China and India.

These situations concur with emerging totalitarians, such as Germany and Japan, recovering fast and the Soviet socialist bloc economies being completely unaffected after the Great Depression in 1929

At that time, although the world economy showed signs of recovery, it did not last long. The economic frictions among the nations heated up and the Second World War broke out soon after.

(Colored maple leaves Imperial Palace, Tokyo)

ŸHistoric turning point

Today's China, which has tried to make the transition from a socialist economy to a capitalist market economy, is different from the Soviet Union led by Stalin. India too, is different from the pre-war Germany and Japan which were ruled by totalitarian and militarism. However, now, a second depression of the economy is still concerned in United States, Europe and Japan. Moreover, friction and conflict of interest over climate change problems have shown the momentum to overheat among industrialized countries, emerging countries and developing countries. There is a possibility that an important turning point in history emerges in 2010.

 

ŸFate of Japan's economic reform

Japan, which had entrusted the United States with diplomacy and security issues, and focusing on economic construction after the World War II, had been growing by leaps and bounds. But after the end of the Cold War and coming into the late 90's, the growth of Japan was declining and the government was forced to correct the course of both itfs economy and politics. In the meantime, the Koizumi Cabinet promoted market-based structural reforms by leveraging privatization and Hatoyama Cabinet is now trying to break away from bureaucracy by leveraging the sorting business. The Japanese government's Administrative Reform Council (Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama Chairman) began screening what it called wasteful and ineffective projects from fiscal 2010 budget requests prepared by bureaucrats.

 

ŸSoft words win hard hearts

Both privatization of postal services and breaking away from bureaucracy are major operations against the backbone of Japan, built since the Meiji era. To re-bear Japan through these operations, each and every person will have to prepare in their own way. Even if Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi had iron-arms, unless the public does prepare, he would end up breaking down.

Prime Minister Hatoyama is lacking in Prime Minister Koizumi's leadership to say it nicely, or outrageousness to say it bluntly. However it may help to raise the awareness of the public. In other words, Hatoyama's softness may raise awareness of the public, which Koizumi's hardness could not achieve, and the rebirth of Japan may be possible.

 

ŸEntrepreneurship plays a key

The reason why the economy recovered rapidly in postwar Japan, even as political turmoil continued in the storms of protest against the Japan-US Security Treaty and campus strife, was not just only because of the special demands from the Korea War and Vietnam War but also because there were independent-minded managements, who cleared paths with their own hands, from town-factories to large companies throughout the country. As long as there are such managers, any crisis can be overcome, and companies, both large and small, can survive.

 

ŸObama Administration's Middle East policy

The Obama Administration, which was born in a serious economic crisis such as the Subprime loan problem, Lehman shock, and the collapse of the Big Three, seems to be caught in a quagmire with no way out in the Middle East. The Middle East problem is traced back to the founding of Israel. Unless the Israel problem is not solved, even if Iran's nuclear program is contained, and additional troops are sent to Afghanistan, the second and the third Al-Qaeda would still emerge and the threat of terrorism will still persist.

 

ŸZionism is a koan for all mankind

Zionism is not specific to Jews but it is the most difficult koan (subject which Zen-masters give each religion to learn and practice the doctrine of Buddhism) shared by all mankind. "I am placing a stone in Zion that makes people stumble, a rock that makes them fall." Paul said in Romans quoting from the Old Testament scripture (Romans 9:33). It is a touchstone for Christians, Jews, Muslims and all mankind to test whether they have the abilities to achieve true peace. Jesus already gave his answer two thousand years ago when he was given this koan from a Samaritan woman fetching water (John 4:20-24).

 

ŸElimination of nuclear weapons

Obama has advocated the abolition of nuclear weapons as the ultimate goal. The worldfs largest nuclear power, the United States, by even trying to contain Iranfs and the North Korea's developing nuclear technologies to achieve this goal, will not work.

The reason why the Meiji Restoration (Shogunate system configured with military organizations of various clans brought to an end and national unity was born in Japan) succeeded, is because the Tokugawa government chose disarmament by itself and gave up the Edo-castle bloodlessly. Because the biggest warlord Tokugawa disarmed by its own choice, Satsuma-han, Choshu-han and the other hundreds of Hans had no cause to have their own militias any longer. The courageous decision of Shogun Yoshinobu Tokugawa and his Chief of the General Staff Kaishu Katsu, helped the Meiji-government to establish its foundation.

In the same way, if the leader of the free world, USA, initiates to propose the transfer of nuclear weapons to the United Nations, other nations such as Russia, Britain, France, China and India cannot refuse it. The nuke race may be eradicated. If so, then disarmament of conventional weapons is accelerated and international conflict would also be reduced.

 

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