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India Front Line Report
SEAnews Issue:monthly
2019-07-10 ArtNo.46522
◆What a $5 trillion economy would look like

【New Delhi】At the meeting of the Governing Council of the NITI Aayog on June 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the target of a $5 trillion economy for India by 2024.
 Each State must aim to at least double its economy if the country is to achieve the target of a $5 trillion economy by 2024, Prime Minister told the Chief Ministers gathered for the NITI Aayog's fifth Governing Council meeting.
 Responding to concerns from the States, he announced the setting up of a high-level task force on structural reforms in the farm sector, as well as a potential revision of disaster relief fund norms.

○To achieve its '$5-trn economy' goal, India must stop scoring own goals
 It is necessary to think big when seeking to make a difference, for transformation does not come from modest plans.
 The fable of the hare and the tortoise has long been used by many liberal foreign observers of India's economy.
 The hope has been that democratic India, with its sluggish reforms process, might eventually catch up with the bold pace of reforms and growth that dictatorial China has set in the past four decades.
 This story, along with assorted magazine cover images of India as an uncaged tiger or a purposeful elephant, has helped policymakers in New Delhi believe India's turn will come... well, sometime in the next millennium.

○Can India become a $5 trillion economy?
 Modi could never be accused of lacking ambition, but the fact is that getting India's GDP to $5 trillion in five years will be far more challenging than achievable.
 China is now a $13-trillion economy and India is, currently, a $2.8 trillion economy; to reach the $5 trillion mark by 2024, the economy would require nominal growth in dollar terms of over 12 per cent a year.
 To put this in context, in the last quarter for which data is available, India grew at slower than 6 per cent in real terms — and, if you believe the Modi government's own former top economist, that data is flawed and India may well be growing a few percentage points less than that.
 India could and should aspire to double-digit growth. Without sustained growth at that level it has little hope of employing the roughly one million young people who join its workforce every month. And unless it takes advantage of its current, favorable demographics it is never likely to emerge as an upper-middle-income economy with a prosperous and thriving middle class.
【News source】

What a $5 trillion economy would look like

Making India $5 trillion economy by 2024 challenging, but achievable, says PM Modi; here’s what’s needed

To achieve its '$5-trn economy' goal, India must stop scoring own goals

Can India become a $5 trillion economy?

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