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India Front Line Report
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2018-07-02 ArtNo.46300
◆Telecom Services Q4: Industry revenues fell 7% q-o-q




【New Delhi】Indian telecom revenues fell 7% q-o-q in Q4FY18 led by an 11% drop in ARPU.
 With the exit of Reliance Communications Limited and Aircel Ltd, most large operators gained market share.
Idea was the only large operator to lose market share (down 30bps q-o-q), losing market share in 14 of the 22 circles.
 Jio’s market share has increased 400bps to 19%. With Jio targeting postpaid subscribers, we expect revenues to fall another c10% in the next 12m.
 Indian telecom revenues (adjusted gross revenues, AGR) are down 25% from Q4FY16 levels. The fall was precipitated by price cuts in end-Jan by Jio and incumbents. Industry ARPUs fell another 11% q-o-q and now stand at `70/sub/month.
 Ex Idea, all other large operators gained revenue market share (RMS) with Jio gaining the most at 400bps. Jio’s market share now stands at 19.1% and has overtaken Idea (at 16%). Jio’s share though is still well below its ambition (50%) and our stable state expectation of 30%+. With smaller players having only 4% RMS, incremental gains for Jio will have to come from incumbents’ losses.

【News source】

Telecom Services Q4: Industry revenues fell 7% q-o-q

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